To be successful in sports betting over the long term, it’s crucial to adopt certain strategies. It’s important not to rush into making predictions. Just because FC Bayern Munich is a clear favorite against FC Augsburg doesn’t mean you should bet everything on a high Bayern win, even if the Munich team has consistently won their previous home games by large margins.
An analysis begins with a close examination of the teams or players you want to bet on. Are there any particular pieces of information that should be considered? Besides classic approaches like records, home and away strengths, and league positions, it’s also vital to take match situations into account. In football, for example, it’s quite reasonable to check whether key players are injured, suspended, or possibly rested for an important game. Some players simply cannot be replaced and can leave a significant gap in the team.
If a team’s top scorer is out, it becomes difficult to bet on a game with many goals. If the defensive leader is suspended, this can have substantial impacts on the stability of the defense. These considerations are relevant in sports with a classic division, whether it’s football, basketball, or handball. It’s also advisable to take a statistical approach. However, this is not a cure-all. Generally speaking, it’s also important to select the “right” games. In Bayern’s games, for instance, this is challenging because they are always heavy favorites, resulting in thin and unattractive betting odds. Value can often be found in matches where one might not initially expect it. But what is value, and how can we roughly determine this value? We want to explain that!
What Are Value Bets?
The concept of value is closely linked to the concept of Return on Investment (ROI). And determines when a sports bettor actually makes a profit and how substantial that profit is. Here, the mathematical law of large numbers plays a crucial role. This law states that the relative frequency of a random outcome (or in the case of sports betting, a bet) typically stabilizes around the theoretical probability of a random outcome. When the underlying random experiment is conducted repeatedly under the same conditions. A bet would have value if the expected long-term profit is greater than the stake. However, since a match is not played repeatedly. But exactly once, this approach remains theoretical initially.
Tips and Tricks for Total Goals Bets on Over/Under!
Example of a Value Bet in Football
An example from the last European Championship: Italy received odds of 5.00 in the semi-finals against Germany. Many bettors thought this result hardly had value. Because Germany had an exceptional year and was a top favorite to win the European Championship. However, those who analyzed the match more closely would have realized that although Germany had only a few losses that calendar year, there were other factors that made these betting odds questionable. The winning odds of 5.00 indicated a probability of about 20% for Italy’s victory. This meant that if you placed this bet 100 times and Italy won 20 times, you would break even at around 0. This bet would have value if Italy won more than 20 times. And the winning probability, according to the law of large numbers, was higher than the implied winning probability for Italy.
While this is theoretical, it clearly illustrates how to achieve profits with sports betting. You must consistently play higher odds than the actual winning probability. While this cannot be precisely communicated. it can be reasonably narrowed down through good information and statistics. This bet would also have value if Italy had a winning probability of 30% (and would still be a clear outsider)! Ultimately, one would have had to consider the following: the Italians had a solid European Championship, holding the world champions Spain to a 1-1 draw, dominating Croatia in a 1-1 draw, and clearly beating Ireland in their last group match. In the quarter-finals, they dominated the English but only advanced through penalties. Their form was good, and their motivation and morale (from winning the penalty shootout) were high. The favorite role for Germany was justified from a playing perspective. They won all three matches in the death group against Portugal (1-0), Denmark (2-1), and the Netherlands (2-1). They also excelled against Greece in the quarter-finals with a score of 4-2.
Profitability in Betting Over the Long Term!
The ROI (Return on Investment) is a business metric and can be challenging for a casual player to determine. However, professional sports bettors know that they should keep track of their bets and winnings to maintain an overview of profitability. ROI is commonly used in financial markets and among companies in investment departments. As a reliable means to measure the return on an investment, measured by profit in relation to invested capital.
For sports betting, this means looking at the long-term percentage of profit made per unit of money wagered (units or euros). The value can be calculated as the quotient between profit and total capital or between revenue and total capital. The results differ by 100%. Generally, sports bettors consider an ROI between 5% and 10% to be desirable and realistic, especially in football. In other sports, a higher value can be assumed due to the information asymmetry between bookmakers and bettors. Examples of this include Eastern European leagues in general, particularly in basketball, football, and ice hockey. Additionally, amateur tennis (ITF tournaments) is considered very lucrative. If better research is conducted than that of the bookmakers!